Source: http://www.forexblog.org/2011/04/is-the-kiwi-the-most-overvalued-currency.html
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Sabtu, 30 April 2011
Is the Kiwi the Most Overvalued Currency?
During recent interviews with the Forex Blog, both Mike Kulej of FX Madness and the team at Action Forex imparted their beliefs that the New Zealand Dollar is currently the world’s most undervalued currency. Since I hadn’t written about the Kiwi in a few months, I decide to some research, ad came to a slightly [...]
For US Trade Deficit, Don't Blame Yuan
When it comes to the US trade deficit with China, one thing has become apparent, the foreign exchange rate is not a significant factor. As China's yuan strengthens, so does the trade gap.
Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/2011/04/27/for-us-trade-deficit-dont-blame-yuan/
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Spend It Like You Stole It From The Fed
QE2 is ending in June. But globally, QE3 has already begun. As usual, Japan is the pacesetter. As temperatures rose at its Fukushima reactor so did Japan’s monetary base, at the rate of 100% per week! What happens to all this new, hot money? No one knows, exactly.
Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/04/30/spend-it-like-you-stole-it-from-the-fed/
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The Next Boom Will Come
The global economy is in the doldrums. Collapsing housing prices and ensuing foreclosures have brought both borrowers and lenders to their knees, frozen credit markets, depressed stock prices, softened consumer demand, forced oil, metal (even gold) and other commodity prices lower, and now dragged down the commercial real estate market as well. The Bush and Paulson $700 billion financial rescue plan has morphed from an impracticable illiquid-asset buyback plan to shore up bank balance sheets into an across-the-board equity infusion scheme and sadly, along its porky way, lost focus, impact and credibility. Cynics question what benefit Bernanke's many years of academic study of the Great Depression have brought him, or anyone else, for that matter. Respected business figures (for example, Soros and Dimon) warn of a deepening recession in 2009, possibly even a depression.
Given the dour outlook of economic experts and pervasive pessimism of the investing public, it's hard to be optimistic--but I am. I'm confident that better times and a stronger economy lie ahead of us. Really, a brighter future is all but inevitable. Yes, I repeat, just as day follows night, we will see better times. Let me explain the root of my optimism.
Generally speaking, two basic schools of economic thought have been most influential over the past 75 years--Keynesians (including neo-Keynesians), who advocate fiscal measures such as an increase in government spending to stimulate a sluggish economy, and higher taxes to cool an overheated inflationary economy; and monetarists (led by Friedman's Chicago school), who believe that what's more important is controlling the money supply, primarily through buying and selling government bonds in the open market and raising and lowering the discount rate. Both schools of economic thought unabashedly lay claim to real-world successes of their models--Keynesians take credit for lifting the economy back onto its feet through FDR's New Deal spending following the Great Depression in the 1930s, and monetarists boast of steady and prolonged economic growth in the 1980s (Reagan years) and 1990s--despite the many recessions we have seen, including those in recent decades: 1980 (7 months), 1981-1982 (17 months), 1991-1992 (8 months), 2001-2002 (12 months), and presumably 2008-2009.
While these two mainstream schools of economic thought certainly have their differences, they also share an important commonality--both rely heavily on government intervention to control or at least influence economic growth. President Bush's consumer-targeted economic stimulus package during the early days of the current financial crisis and the new stimulus package that President-elect Obama stressed as a high-priority item in his first press conference a week ago are examples of Keynesian policy in action. The Fed's continual "busy-body" adjustment of the discount rate--Greenspan's lowering of the rate to 1% in 2003 during the last recession precipitated by the dot-com bubble, and raising it back up to the 5% range by the time of his retirement in 2006, and Bernanke's pushing the discount rate all the way back down again to 1% last month, while hinting at more rate cuts to follow--are examples of attempts to steer the economy using monetary policy.
In sharp contrast to these two mainstream schools are those who argue that both the Keynesians and monetarists are wrong-headed. For example, the Austrian school, based on the thinking of Mises and Hayek, explain how government intervention is not the solution. Stating that fiscal and monetary policy fail to produce their intended impact, these economists insist that, instead of smoothing the vagaries of the business cycle, government intervention actually causes the booms and busts, through over-extension and over-contraction of credit at artificial prices via the highly government-regulated fractional-reserve banking system. Quite contrary to active intervention, the Austrian school recommends following a laissez-faire "do nothing" approach, theorizing that this is the only way to cure permanently our economic woes. For a coherent exposition of the Austrian school's position, see Murray Rothbard's 1969 essay, "Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure," here.
Which economic school is right? Well, first off, practically speaking, it would be grossly out of character and, in fact, outright political suicide for any president--whether lame-duck Bush, or our country's new icon of hope, "renegade" Obama--to tell us American citizens that, after serious dialog and lengthy reflection, the elected officials and their appointed experts have decided that a "do nothing" policy is best. With home foreclosures at historical highs and rising, and growing worries over burdensome credit card balances, auto loans and other consumer debt, the popular approval ratings of even the most charismatic of political leaders would undoubtedly suffer greatly if all their economic advisory team could come up with is to a "do nothing" strategy for tackling the current economic crisis. No, simply put, Americans are by nature more active doers than thinkers, and doing nothing never has been and probably never will be an acceptable alternative for managing our economy.
So, much to the chagrin of Austrian school economists, we must conclude that government intervention, whether effective or not, will continue when Obama and later presidents take office. Given this inevitability that politicians and their mainstream economic advisers will always be inclined to fiddle with the economy, here's the logic of what to expect:
Suffice it to say, for anyone distraught by the current bust, please have patience: the next boom will come--maybe even sooner than you or anyone now thinks.
Given the dour outlook of economic experts and pervasive pessimism of the investing public, it's hard to be optimistic--but I am. I'm confident that better times and a stronger economy lie ahead of us. Really, a brighter future is all but inevitable. Yes, I repeat, just as day follows night, we will see better times. Let me explain the root of my optimism.
Generally speaking, two basic schools of economic thought have been most influential over the past 75 years--Keynesians (including neo-Keynesians), who advocate fiscal measures such as an increase in government spending to stimulate a sluggish economy, and higher taxes to cool an overheated inflationary economy; and monetarists (led by Friedman's Chicago school), who believe that what's more important is controlling the money supply, primarily through buying and selling government bonds in the open market and raising and lowering the discount rate. Both schools of economic thought unabashedly lay claim to real-world successes of their models--Keynesians take credit for lifting the economy back onto its feet through FDR's New Deal spending following the Great Depression in the 1930s, and monetarists boast of steady and prolonged economic growth in the 1980s (Reagan years) and 1990s--despite the many recessions we have seen, including those in recent decades: 1980 (7 months), 1981-1982 (17 months), 1991-1992 (8 months), 2001-2002 (12 months), and presumably 2008-2009.
While these two mainstream schools of economic thought certainly have their differences, they also share an important commonality--both rely heavily on government intervention to control or at least influence economic growth. President Bush's consumer-targeted economic stimulus package during the early days of the current financial crisis and the new stimulus package that President-elect Obama stressed as a high-priority item in his first press conference a week ago are examples of Keynesian policy in action. The Fed's continual "busy-body" adjustment of the discount rate--Greenspan's lowering of the rate to 1% in 2003 during the last recession precipitated by the dot-com bubble, and raising it back up to the 5% range by the time of his retirement in 2006, and Bernanke's pushing the discount rate all the way back down again to 1% last month, while hinting at more rate cuts to follow--are examples of attempts to steer the economy using monetary policy.
In sharp contrast to these two mainstream schools are those who argue that both the Keynesians and monetarists are wrong-headed. For example, the Austrian school, based on the thinking of Mises and Hayek, explain how government intervention is not the solution. Stating that fiscal and monetary policy fail to produce their intended impact, these economists insist that, instead of smoothing the vagaries of the business cycle, government intervention actually causes the booms and busts, through over-extension and over-contraction of credit at artificial prices via the highly government-regulated fractional-reserve banking system. Quite contrary to active intervention, the Austrian school recommends following a laissez-faire "do nothing" approach, theorizing that this is the only way to cure permanently our economic woes. For a coherent exposition of the Austrian school's position, see Murray Rothbard's 1969 essay, "Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure," here.
Which economic school is right? Well, first off, practically speaking, it would be grossly out of character and, in fact, outright political suicide for any president--whether lame-duck Bush, or our country's new icon of hope, "renegade" Obama--to tell us American citizens that, after serious dialog and lengthy reflection, the elected officials and their appointed experts have decided that a "do nothing" policy is best. With home foreclosures at historical highs and rising, and growing worries over burdensome credit card balances, auto loans and other consumer debt, the popular approval ratings of even the most charismatic of political leaders would undoubtedly suffer greatly if all their economic advisory team could come up with is to a "do nothing" strategy for tackling the current economic crisis. No, simply put, Americans are by nature more active doers than thinkers, and doing nothing never has been and probably never will be an acceptable alternative for managing our economy.
So, much to the chagrin of Austrian school economists, we must conclude that government intervention, whether effective or not, will continue when Obama and later presidents take office. Given this inevitability that politicians and their mainstream economic advisers will always be inclined to fiddle with the economy, here's the logic of what to expect:
- If the sketchy long-run track record (performing like a "B" student, with 13 out of the 115 quarters beginning in 1980 showing negative real GDP growth, according to BEA data) of the Keynesians and monetarists is any indication, we should see at least some degree of over-shooting in the future, perhaps this time manifested by a delayed but sudden response of our economy to excessive fiscal stimulus or overly loose monetary policy, resulting in either consumer price inflation or yet another asset bubble. (On the other hand, if by chance (or fluke?) policymakers have learned from the last boom-bust cycle and this time around manage to get the economic fine-tuning exactly right, they will have realized the heroic feat of taming the recalcitrant business cycle, macroeconomic volatility will cease, and we will all live, at least economically, happily ever after. . . . but I would tend to believe other fairy tales before placing undue faith in this one, wouldn't you?)
- If the Austrian school is correct in their critical analysis of the shortcomings of Keynesian and monetary policy, the current credit-driven bust will inevitably be followed by a boom, and the more our government intervenes to try to fix the problem, the higher the crest and deeper the trough we will see during the next boom-bust cycle.
Suffice it to say, for anyone distraught by the current bust, please have patience: the next boom will come--maybe even sooner than you or anyone now thinks.
Source: http://lloydsinvestment.blogspot.com/2008/11/next-boom-will-come.html
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How Guessing Market Direction Can Be PREDICTABLY Bad for Your Financial Health
"The game is called probability guessing. . . . [S]ubjects are shown a series of cards or lights which can have two colors, say green and red . . . appear[ing] . . . with different probabilities but otherwise without a pattern. . . . The task of the subject, after watching for a while, is to predict whether each new member of the sequence will be red or green. . . . Humans usually try to guess the pattern, and in the process we allow ourselves to be outperformed by a rat. . . ." (excerpt from Leonard Mlodinow's The Drunkard's Walk--How Randomness Rules Our Lives, 2008)
In a stock market context, the probability guessing game described above would read like this: In any given year, the stock market either rises (green) or falls (red). If we look over the past six decades, from 1950 through 2009, we find that during the sequential decades (1950s, 1960s, and so on) the S&P 500 Index rose in 8, 6, 7, 9, 8 and 6 out of the 10 years (using data from Yahoo! Finance). In other words, during a "typical" decade annual stock market returns are "green" about 7 or 8 out of the 10 years, and "red" about 2 or 3 out of the 10 years. Based on these historical data, we can infer that the stock market tends to rise during any particular calendar with a probability of about 75%, and fall with a probability of about 25%. As investors, we, of course, would like to try to predict whether this year (or next year, or any future year for that matter) will be green or red.
For us investors, the million-dollar question is: Should an investor attempt to "time" the market, by investing in stocks during years the market is more likely (in the investor's opinion) to rise and staying out of the market during other years when the market is more likely (again, in the investor's opinion) to fall?
Obviously, if the investor truly has enough information, foresight or precognition to know with a high degree of certainty when the market will rise or fall, then market-timing makes perfect sense and will lead to higher returns. However, what happens if the investor only believes that he knows but actually does not, so that for all practical purposes the investor is really faced with the 75% green versus 25% red probabilities described above? Is any harm done by guessing?
Analogous to the general guessing game Mlodinow mentions in his book, let's consider two strategies:
1. Buy-and-Hold Strategy: Since the market rises during 75% of the years, one could just go long the market by buying an exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 Index (or buying individual stocks), without attempting to time the market at all. A buy-and-hold investor can expect to generate positive returns 75% of the years but must also accept the unavoidable "fact" that the market will typically fall 25% of the time. In this "simpleton" strategy, an investor's long-run win percentage (i.e., the percentage of years the investor's portfolio will show positive returns) is expected to be 75%;
2. Market-Timing Strategy: A presumably more "sophisticated" investor will, through some combination of fundamental and technical analysis and application of his general intelligence and market wisdom, come up with a convincing explanation for why the market is more likely to rise (or fall) during any particular year. Believing he can distinguish beforehand (i.e., predict) which years are among the 75% "green" years when the market will rise and, likewise, which years are among the 25% "red" years when the market will fall, such an investor will want to go long 75% of the time and stay out of (or go short) the market 25% of the time.
If the bright and sophisticated market-timing investor has an "edge" over the the naive and unthinking buy-and-hold simpletons, then he will end up being right more than 75% of the time and will show higher long-run returns. At the other extreme, if it turns out that the market-timer only believes he has an edge but actually does not, one would think that his edge would just vanish and there should be no penalty for guessing, right?
Well, you might think that guessing carries no penalty, but that's actually wrong! Quite counter-intuitively, investors should expect lower returns when they guess. Here's why.
Let p be the (stationary) probability that the the market will rise in a given year, i.e., p = 0.75, representing the 75% "green" probability. Supposing that the market-timer's guesses do not give him any significant edge, his overall win percentage is given by a straightforward weighted-probability calculation:
Market-Timer's Win Percentage
= (Portion of time the market-timer goes long) x (Probability that market rises)
+ (Portion of time the market-timer stays out of market) x (Probabiility that market falls)
= p x p + (1 - p) x (1 - p)
= p2 + (1 - 2p + p2)
= 2p2 - 2p + 1.
On the other hand, the Buy-and-Hold Investor's Win Percentage is just p, as we saw earlier. Consequently, we may write that the expected potential downside of the market-timing strategy versus the buy-and-hold strategy is the difference:
(Buy-and-Hold Investor's Win Percentage) - (Market-Timer's Win Percentage)
= p - (2p2 - 2p + 1)
= -2p2 + 3p - 1
= 2(p - 0.5)(1 - p),
where the last expression is the factored-form equivalent of the quadratic polynomial in the previous line.
From the factored-form expression, we can easily see that whenever p is in the "physical" range (i.e., consistent with the probabilities indicated by market history for a wide variety of investment time windows) from 0.5 to 1.0, a buy-and-hold investor is expected to outperform any market-timer who is really just guessing without appealing to any special knowledge of market direction. In particular, when p = 0.75 (which is the historical win-percentage for a sequence of annual returns), the Market-Timer's Win Percentage becomes 2(0.75)2 - 2(0.75) + 1 = 0.625, or 62.5%, which is 12.5 percentage points worse than the Buy-and-Hold Win Percentage of 75%.
Therefore, to the extent that a market-timer is "only guessing" (and who can really be so certain?) about market direction, he is (presumably unknowingly) effectively "shooting himself in the foot," following a self-destructive path of degrading his expected returns by staying out of the market 25% of the time (by the way, shorting the market 25% of the time would make matters even worse). Despite his seemingly sophisticated ways, this market-timer can actually be expected to underperform the simpleton buy-and-hold investor in the long-run.
Lesson: Don't attempt to "time the market" unless you are absolutely certain that your market-timing strategy actually works, since your expected downside from "believing without knowing" far exceeds your time spent strategizing, not to mention your trading costs and commissions consumed.
Source: http://lloydsinvestment.blogspot.com/2010/01/how-guessing-market-direction-can-be.html
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Verizon to put location-tracking warning sticker on phones
In the wake of a giant brouhaha over the news that Apple's iPhones record and store users' locations, Verizon Wireless says it will start slapping 'we can track you!' warning stickers on its products.
Source: http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_latest/~3/m_RMbbMiEY8/index.htm
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Thursday Links 4/14/11
Hello all.�Here’s today’s dose of links
Bob Janjuah On Picking Your Poison: A 1,350 Top In The S&P Or QE3, With A Change In The FX Regime And A Surge In Gold (Zero Hedge)
Jail: It’s Not Just For Poor People Anymore (Lolfed)
U.S. Dollar ? Review and Outlook (Financial Sense)
Zuckerberg emails leak, appear genuine (The Inquirer)
Rational Irrationality: Inside George Soros?s ?Monstrous Monkey House? (The New Yorker)
Senate panel slams Goldman in scathing crisis report (Reuters)
Shanky’s Rant (Shanky’s Tech Blog)
Why Has No One on Wall Street Gone to Jail (Yet)? (Big Picture)
Do You Really Know Your Edge? (PopDoc Trader)
Japan’s crisis: one month later (Boston)
Beautiful Read More
Bob Janjuah On Picking Your Poison: A 1,350 Top In The S&P Or QE3, With A Change In The FX Regime And A Surge In Gold (Zero Hedge)
Jail: It’s Not Just For Poor People Anymore (Lolfed)
U.S. Dollar ? Review and Outlook (Financial Sense)
Zuckerberg emails leak, appear genuine (The Inquirer)
Rational Irrationality: Inside George Soros?s ?Monstrous Monkey House? (The New Yorker)
Senate panel slams Goldman in scathing crisis report (Reuters)
Shanky’s Rant (Shanky’s Tech Blog)
Why Has No One on Wall Street Gone to Jail (Yet)? (Big Picture)
Do You Really Know Your Edge? (PopDoc Trader)
Japan’s crisis: one month later (Boston)
Beautiful Read More
� 2011 FX Trading Blog - innerfx.com | Article Source | Post tags: banksters, Bob Janjuah, Bruce Springsteen, disasters, Dollar, Earthquake, Euro-zone crisis, facebook, Fukushima Nuclear Plant, George Soros, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Japan, Keynesian economics, music, pictures, QE3, quantitative easing, recommended articles, Tsunami, usd index
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/innerfx/~3/Il-C1f7Vxrg/thursday-links-41411.html
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Learn How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups
By Elliott Wave International To many novice investors, chart patterns might as well be tea leaves. Can they really tell you anything reliable? And even if they can, how in the world do you know what to look for? Experienced traders know that the answer to the first question is a resounding "yes." As for [...]
Source: http://blog.forexcycle.com/6218/learn-how-to-use-bar-patterns-to-spot-trade-setups/
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AutoSlash.com Review: My Car Rental Experience
I just got back from my trip to Orlando, where I tried the new car rental website AutoSlash.com to book, and previously wrote an introductory summary of their features. To briefly recap, the website takes advantage of a unique feature of car rental reservations to continuously check for lower prices over time and re-book you [...]
Related posts:
Related posts:
- AutoSlash.com: Car Rental Price Search Engine
- Earn 9,999 Delta SkyMiles With 1-Day Car Rental
- SecondSpin.com Used DVD SellBack Experience [Review]
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Is this what we really want?
So let me see if I got this right.
We don't like the cars produced by our own country's automotive manufacturers. We don't like them to the extent their very existence is in doubt, such is demand.
But we also think our country needs an automotive industry. We therefore believe we must act to save them, to keep them from going out of business.
How to do that? Well, there are a number of ways:
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- New car incentives - buy a new car and get cash back or cash off the purchase price
- Warranty incentives - extended warranties, or in this case, warranties backed by the US Government
- New management - Maybe if we install a management team we like better than the current one we'll start seeing cars we want to buy.
- Shotgun weddings - Force them into relationships with other companies. Bigger is always better, right?
- Oust the owners and give the company to their lenders
But I have to ask, which of these makes sense? If there is, I have to admit I don't see it.
Think about it for a minute. Every one of these ideas entails using our own money to try to get us to buy the cars we ourselves produce. I don't know how to make sense out of that.
Ah, but you say it isn't all our own money. Much of the money to be used here is fresh money printed by the US Government.
True enough. It doesn't all come out of our own pockets. Not today at least. Some of it is created. As long as the dollar is strong in the world markets - which is another way of saying as long as the world has faith in US currency - we can print new, fresh money to give to our failing companies.
But the test of that faith is whether the rest of the world stands behind our decision to print new money. After all, they buy our debts with their own currency. The test is whether they continue to buy those debts. At some point they might decide there are so many dollars around (larger supply) that dollars are not scarce and therefore not worth as much compared to their own currencies.
And it's not as if we're not giving them incentive to do that. After all, we're using their money to entice ourselves to buy cars from companies which compete with companies of their own countries.
Now what about if we go about changing ownership and/or management? Well lets see. Do we think we ourselves (the US Government) can do a better job making cars for ourselves?
And what about taking the company away from its owners - that's you and me - and giving it over to it's lenders? Well the owners are people like you and me who have pension plans and 401(k) plans and pensions. It's lenders are... largely the same group of people. Only now we'll all have ownership in companies whose products we don't want to buy in place of the loans we'd already made to those companies.
I'll keep thinking about this. Surely there must be a good reason to do this.
And by the way I'm not making any of this up. All of the above schemes are in fact in play today as part of the US Government (that's you and me) plan to bail out US auto makers. You can read it for yourself in this AP news article.
Source: http://www.myinvestmentblog.com/what-we-really-want
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Daily Forex Analysis ? April 18, 2011
USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF remains in downtrend from 0.9339, and the fall extended to as low as 0.8895, the price action from 0.8895 is treated as minor consolidation of downtrend. Another fall would likely be seen after consolidation, and next target would be at 0.8800 zone. Resistance is at 0.8975, only break above this level will [...]
Source: http://blog.forexcycle.com/6225/daily-forex-analysis-april-18-2011/
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GOLD On The Offensive With Eyes On The 1,550.00 Level
The precious metal remains on the offensive pressing higher and increasing risk of a run at the 1,550.00 level, its psycho level.Its present offensive is coming on the back of its recent consolidation at the 1,480.85 level. Guest post by www.fxtechstrategy.com Price extension is expected towards the 1,600 level, its psycho levels if the 1,550.00 
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/lHh2wFOzwek/
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Jumat, 29 April 2011
Canadian Economy Shrinks in February ? USD/CAD Rises
Canada’s economy shrinks �in February by 0.2%. Early expectations stood on 0% after two strong months of growth. USD/CAD rises, erasing the previous falls. USD/CAD now trades at 0.9510, up from around 0.9490 before the release. 0.9525 serves as resistance. Update: USD/CAD edges higher, but is capped by the aforementioned resistance line. Canada’s economy enjoyed 
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/oI6HHI1OziI/
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Download your complimentary new 50-page Independent Investor eBook from Elliott Wave International
Free Report: Buying Opportunity? Find Out What Extreme Market Sentiment Levels Mean for Your Investments. Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just released a new report on the historical importance of extreme market sentiment levels. You can learn more about it below, or follow this link to download the free report now. What exactly [...]
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The World's Richest Royals
On April 29, Kate Middleton will cease to be a commoner and will marry into one of the oldest and wealthiest royal families still in existence. While the royal family fulfills only a ceremonial role in U.K. politics (and fodder for those keen on fashion or gossip) and Middleton will be assuming no rulership or political power, there is no question that her lifestyle and living conditions are about to change dramatically. (For related reading, also take a look atAmerica's Richest Sports Team Owners.)
Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/investopedia/2011/04/29/the-worlds-richest-royals/
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Nowhere to go but up?
Are you scratching your head trying to figure out where this market is headed? Or maybe better put, why it's headed up now, when all indications are it should be bouncing along going nowhere or trending down?
Me too, but I have a theory for why it's headed the other way. I can't help but wonder if the fuel behind this rally is the lack of fuel for another crisis.
Can you think of any classes of investment that could be taken behind the woodshed? That's what happened in 1987, with stocks in general. It happened again in 2000 with internet stocks. This one was precipitated from real estate and debt speculation. What's left?
Could all this be happening simply because there are no other misbehaving investment classes? (At least none that we know of.) Maybe so. If true, then it's safe to say confidence in the system, in the economy in general, and the economy's ability to recover from a strong shock in particular is building.
But it won't build forever, not all by itself. The real question therefore becomes: Will these gains prove sustainable? Will the up trend last long enough for some glimmer of hope of recovery to materialize?
Source: http://www.myinvestmentblog.com/nowhere-go
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Second Life For New Canaan Modern Houses?
If you’ve ever wondered what it’s like to live in a glass house, there are two tours this month of New Canaan, Connecticut moderns: one a themed open-house event and another a benefit for the local historical society.
Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/ashleaebeling/2011/04/29/second-life-for-new-canaan-modern-houses/
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Daily Forex Analysis ? April 26, 2011
USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY stays in a falling price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 85.51. Key resistance is now at 82.42, as long as this level holds, downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 81.00 area. On the other side, a break above 82.42 will indicate that [...]
Source: http://blog.forexcycle.com/6262/daily-forex-analysis-april-26-2011/
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A silver bullet for urban traffic problems
Some of the most valuable real estate in cities is hidden beneath parked cars.
Source: http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_latest/~3/a5sTWh7DI2A/index.htm
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GDP: Economic recovery stumbles
Economic growth slowed to a crawl in the first three months of the year as a spike in gasoline, higher overall inflation and continued weakness in the housing market all took a toll on the recovery.
Source: http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_latest/~3/5AQ_FBqDodo/index.htm
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Q&A: Ask Lloyd a finance or investment question
Questions Answered:*New*
Invitation: Submit your questions about investing, the stock market, finance or other money-related matters, and I will try to provide meaningful responses based on my own research and perspectives. Please post your questions to this blog by clicking on the "COMMENTS" link immediately below. Thanks!
Source: http://lloydsinvestment.blogspot.com/2007/06/q-if-any-readers-have-questions-on.html
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Kamis, 28 April 2011
AutoSlash.com Review: My Car Rental Experience
I just got back from my trip to Orlando, where I tried the new car rental website AutoSlash.com to book, and previously wrote an introductory summary of their features. To briefly recap, the website takes advantage of a unique feature of car rental reservations to continuously check for lower prices over time and re-book you [...]
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- AutoSlash.com: Car Rental Price Search Engine
- SecondSpin.com Used DVD SellBack Experience [Review]
- Valore Books Review: TextBook SellBack Experience
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Tracking a Student Loan with GnuCash
I recently received an inquiry here from a reader interested in using GnuCash to track his student loan. Here is the text of that email:
Can you help with tracking student loans in GnuCash?
Every month when I pay my student loan I credit my Bank Account for the payment amount $100 I then debit the Loan payment Expense account for the same $100. But how can I track and reflect how much of my Liability has been covered and how much Education Liability i still have to be paid?
Thank you so much once again for your great blog!
Well first off, thanks for the compliment on the blog. (You know I just couldn't cut that part off the end of his message.)
OK, let's illustrate what happens when you apply for and receive a student loan from your bank. Let's say you apply for and receive a $10,000 loan. The first thing you do when you receive the loan is deposit the money in your checking account. In GnuCash this is reflected in two places. The checking account sees a balance increase equal to the loan amount of $10,000. At the same time you need to create a liability account with an equal $10,000 balance. This represents the principal of the loan you must repay. Here's how this looks graphically:
OK, now that the money is in our checking account, it's time to pay for tuition. When you write a tuition check for $10,000 the transaction is recorded in GnuCash as a debit to your checking account, thus decreasing the value of an asset. The transaction is also recorded as a credit to an expense account I've called Tuition Expense. In GnuCash, the Student Loan has now been received and spent. Here's how that tuition check looks in GnuCash:
Now comes the tricky part. They did tell you life gets more complicated after you graduate, right?
Every time you make a payment on your student loan, part of that payment goes to the bank in the form of interest on the loan and part goes to repay the principal on the loan itelf. Recording a student loan payment in GnuCash looks like this:
The $100 loan repayment check you write and send to the bank is recorded in GnuCash as a debit on your checking account, which is a cash based asset. In GnuCash you must also record two offseting transactions representing the portion of the payment which goes toward principal and the portion that goes to interest. For example, your next $100 payment may look something like this in GnuCash:
$100 debit to Assets:Checking $10 credit to Liabilities:Student Loan $90 credit to Expenses:Interest
As always, credits and debits on any transaction must balance.
How do you get the $90 / $10 split? Those amounts are the loan ammortization amounts. You can find them on every bank statement the bank sends you.
Source: http://www.myinvestmentblog.com/tracking-student-loan-gnucash
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Daily Forex Analysis ? April 18, 2011
USDCHF Analysis. USDCHF remains in downtrend from 0.9339, and the fall extended to as low as 0.8895, the price action from 0.8895 is treated as minor consolidation of downtrend. Another fall would likely be seen after consolidation, and next target would be at 0.8800 zone. Resistance is at 0.8975, only break above this level will [...]
Source: http://blog.forexcycle.com/6225/daily-forex-analysis-april-18-2011/
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What?s Next for the Yen?
After the G7 intervened in forex markets last month, the Yen fell dramatically and bearishness spiked in line with my prediction. Over the last week, however, the Yen appears to have bottomed out and is now starting to claw back some its losses. One has to wonder: is the Yen heading back towards record highs [...]
Source: http://www.forexblog.org/2011/04/whats-next-for-the-yen.html
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EURUSD Looking Quite Vulnerable
Quote of the day: “What worries you masters you.” -�Haddon W. Robinson
If you are on Facebook, you may want to visit and ‘like’ innerfx. Thanks in advance
EURUSD – 1.4234 @06:52 GMT
Good morning. The euro fell across the board on sovereign debt concerns, breaking below interim support at 1.4350 to test a more notable support into the 1.4200-1.4250 region. S&P’s downgrade of U.S. credit outlook to negative has sent the risk sensitive currency pairs into freefall – EURUSD following EURJPY which has pulled back from 120 to mid 116, not far above 115 where key support / former resistance resides. Both Read More
If you are on Facebook, you may want to visit and ‘like’ innerfx. Thanks in advance
EURUSD – 1.4234 @06:52 GMT
Good morning. The euro fell across the board on sovereign debt concerns, breaking below interim support at 1.4350 to test a more notable support into the 1.4200-1.4250 region. S&P’s downgrade of U.S. credit outlook to negative has sent the risk sensitive currency pairs into freefall – EURUSD following EURJPY which has pulled back from 120 to mid 116, not far above 115 where key support / former resistance resides. Both Read More
� 2011 FX Trading Blog - innerfx.com | Article Source | Post tags: Euro-zone crisis, EURUSD, rating agencies
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/innerfx/~3/BYdbAwr0Wfk/eurusd-looking-quite-vulnerable.html
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3 Stocks For Baseball Season
Baseball season is fully upon on us, and that means many different things to many different fans.
Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/benzingainsights/2011/04/28/3-stocks-for-baseball-season/
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Benjamin Franklin?s Daily Schedule
Speaking of people posting their schedules… If you are into personal finance, you have to respect Ben Franklin. Amongst many other things, he started a successful business and “retired” at 42, after which he devoted his time to science and later statesmanship. He wrote and published the Poor Richard’s Alamanac for over 25 years, probably [...]
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- Interest Compounded Daily vs. Monthly: Does It Matter?
- 2005 State Sales Tax Holiday Schedule & Details
- FNBO Direct 6% APY Savings Account Review: Opening Process, Features, and Transfer Schedule
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Mymoneyblog/~3/yKq0mvAJnUU/benjamin-franklins-daily-schedule.html
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US GDP Falls Below Low Expectations ? Dollar Recovery Stalls
The initial release of GDP for the first quarter of 2011 shows very weak growth of 1.8% at an annual rate. Early expectations stood on 1.9%. In addition, the weekly jobless claims figure made a leap to 429K, back to the high range after a few good months. The recovery of the dollar after Bernanke’s 
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/x8SF8OVeS8s/
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Electronic Arts Dodges Madden NFL 12 Cover Controversy as Peyton Hillis Beats Michael Vick
Things are starting to look a little better for Electronic Arts these days. A judge has (at least for now) ended the NFL lockout, ruling in favor of the players. Former EA founder Trip Hawkins (who has his own legal problems) has disputed a lawsuit by Robin Antonick against Electronic Arts (although the litigation is moving forward). And NFL fans (along with a lot of animal rights activists), have chosen Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis to appear on the cover of Madden NFL 12. The alternative, convicted dog killer Michael Vick of the Philadelphia Eagles, would have been a PR nightmare.
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Needed: A Large Drop of Helicopter Money
During the past half year, the concerns of the Fed have shifted from worry about commodity-driven inflation (recall $147 oil in July) to its polar opposite--fear about the onset of deflation (coinciding with oil falling below $40 today). With short-term interest rates now lower than the targeted 1% rate, traditional monetary policy measures have become less potent and the U.S. economy is more susceptible to descending into a "liquidity trap." As mentioned by Ben Bernanke in a 2002 speech, one way out of such a predicament is a "helicopter drop"--effectively dropping money from helicopters to consumers and businesses below in order to thwart deflation, stimulate spending and prevent economic stagnation.
Consumer-Based Crisis
The financial crisis we are facing today first surfaced a year and a half ago as a consumer-based subprime mortgage problem that soon developed into an institutional credit crisis, morphed into a pervasive illiquidity dilemma, and earlier this week was, long after the fact, officially named an economic recession that began 12 months ago! As parallels with the Great Depression of the 1930s and Japan's stagnant economy of the 1990s grow more conspicuous, the gloomy predictions of NYU economist Nouriel Roubini loom larger and closer. We are now one year into a recession that, according to Roubini, will most likely extend at least another year. What began as a seemingly minor problem has expanded into a full-blown, global financial crisis that could very well extend into 2010, becoming the most severe economic downturn in the adult lifetime of anyone alive today--unless, of course, our policymakers take appropriate and sufficiently drastic measures to stabilize the financial system.
Bush, Bernanke and Paulson have tried to fix the problem with a whole series of measures--a moderately sized consumer stimulus package in early 2008, bailouts of financial institutions, successive rate cuts, capital infusions to strengthen bank balance sheets, an increased limit on bank deposit insurance, government backstops on portfolio asset losses, purchases of illiquid assets, etc. So far, nothing has worked as well as anyone would like, and our faltering economy and plunging real estate and stock markets continue week after week to drive each other lower, in a relentless asset deflation spiral that is dragging down even the endowments of elite institutions like Harvard. Come January 20, President-elect Obama (incidentally, a Harvard Law alumnus) and newly appointed Treasury secretary Geithner will replace Bush and Paulson, respectively, and we can only hope that the stimulus package in Obama's vision for the future of our economy will be large enough to usher in real change in a favorable direction.
As for the root cause of our economic problems, the consensus opinion among economists and laymen alike implicates overleverage, basically too much debt and too little savings, particularly among consumers. Everyone agrees that saving more would be prudent for any individual consumer facing an uncertain future, but when aggregate consumption falls our economy unfortunately enters a vicious circle, as reduced consumer demand (from saving more) leads to reduced delivery of goods and services and higher unemployment, which, in turn, reduces demand still further. To halt this vicious circle before it does further collateral damage to our fragile economy, we need to find a practicable way to provide debt relief at the consumer level--as soon as possible. This is where the helicopter money comes in.
Helicopter Money Initiative
As Bernanke pointed out in his speech, even when monetary policy by itself becomes ineffective, there are a number of alternative ways to combine monetary policy with fiscal stimulus to prevent deflation and encourage economic growth, despite being in a near-zero interest rate environment like the one we are experiencing today. These less traditional, more innovative measures are:
A. Broad-based tax cuts,
B. Increased purchases of goods and services by the government,
C. Purchase of private assets via the Treasury, and
D. Increased direct transfer of money from the government to the private sector.
President-elect Obama is already planning to provide tax cuts (measure A above) to at least 95% of Americans and some talk of reducing payroll taxes is also circulating. The large (maybe $1 trillion?) stimulus package (measure B) currently under discussion in Congress will hopefully be ready for signing by inauguration day. Purchase of private assets (measure C) is already underway in the commercial paper and mortgage-backed security markets, but practical limitations (i.e., how to price highly illiquid instruments) have prevented the proposed wide-scale purchase of toxic mortgage assets that was the main objective the initial TARP plan. Consumer stimulus packages (measure D), along the lines of the one implemented in the first half of 2008, work most directly and immediately to maintain GDP growth and, for this reason, deserve further serious consideration.
Because near-term inflation is no longer an issue, policymakers now have the luxury of taking the most aggressive actions possible to turn our economy around. With the financially stressed, heavily indebted American consumer so central to our problems, it makes sense to implement an enhanced version of measure D--this time in much larger size. Just as people suffering in the aftermath of a natural disaster need immediate and basic emergency assistance, prior to tax-related benefits and government spending to rebuild infrastructure, our severely damaged economy needs a very significant injection of helicopter money delivered directly to the overleveraged consumer.
To achieve the quickest and most direct money transfer to the consumer, here's what our government should do:
1. Immediate and Direct Impact: Helicopter money provides an immediate stimulus to consumers and businesses, directly benefiting Main Street (a refreshing change after all the prior rescue plans with trillions of dollars going to Wall Street financial institutions);
2. Reduced Consumer Leverage: Consumers will use some of the money to pay down mortgages, credit card debt, car loans, etc.;
3. Increased Consumption: Consumers will use some of the money to do what consumers do best, i.e., buy products and services, which will immediately boost sales of businesses large and small, preventing further job destruction;
4. Market Support: Some of the money will be invested in the stock and real estate markets, relieving downward pressure on asset prices and helping to create the market bottom that is so badly needed to build consumer and investor confidence and turn our economy around;
5. Global Economic Growth: Reduced consumer leverage, increased consumption and increased investment will all boost the U.S. economy, which in turn will help revive the global economy.
With the U.S. population at about 300 million, this new consumer stimulus package of $10,000 per person would total $3 trillion, which is about four times the $700 billion TARP package but less than half of the approximately $8 trillion in cumulative funds the government has already committed through all of the various measures announced. The net effect of this helicopter money plan would be to shift up to $3 trillion of debt from the consumer to the government. This would reduce leverage at the consumer level and boost aggregate demand to stave off a deflationary spiral.
As Professor Roubini points out in this interview, the basic structural problem we face is a global supply glut cannot immediately be reduced even though demand has fallen. Therefore, at least in the short run, the severity of the current crisis justifies "pulling out all stops" to create the demand necessary to meet existing supply. A large helicopter drop appears to be exactly what is needed to stabilize our economy and sidestep the negative impact that further deterioration in employment and the housing and stock markets will otherwise bring.
Consumer-Based Crisis
The financial crisis we are facing today first surfaced a year and a half ago as a consumer-based subprime mortgage problem that soon developed into an institutional credit crisis, morphed into a pervasive illiquidity dilemma, and earlier this week was, long after the fact, officially named an economic recession that began 12 months ago! As parallels with the Great Depression of the 1930s and Japan's stagnant economy of the 1990s grow more conspicuous, the gloomy predictions of NYU economist Nouriel Roubini loom larger and closer. We are now one year into a recession that, according to Roubini, will most likely extend at least another year. What began as a seemingly minor problem has expanded into a full-blown, global financial crisis that could very well extend into 2010, becoming the most severe economic downturn in the adult lifetime of anyone alive today--unless, of course, our policymakers take appropriate and sufficiently drastic measures to stabilize the financial system.
Bush, Bernanke and Paulson have tried to fix the problem with a whole series of measures--a moderately sized consumer stimulus package in early 2008, bailouts of financial institutions, successive rate cuts, capital infusions to strengthen bank balance sheets, an increased limit on bank deposit insurance, government backstops on portfolio asset losses, purchases of illiquid assets, etc. So far, nothing has worked as well as anyone would like, and our faltering economy and plunging real estate and stock markets continue week after week to drive each other lower, in a relentless asset deflation spiral that is dragging down even the endowments of elite institutions like Harvard. Come January 20, President-elect Obama (incidentally, a Harvard Law alumnus) and newly appointed Treasury secretary Geithner will replace Bush and Paulson, respectively, and we can only hope that the stimulus package in Obama's vision for the future of our economy will be large enough to usher in real change in a favorable direction.
As for the root cause of our economic problems, the consensus opinion among economists and laymen alike implicates overleverage, basically too much debt and too little savings, particularly among consumers. Everyone agrees that saving more would be prudent for any individual consumer facing an uncertain future, but when aggregate consumption falls our economy unfortunately enters a vicious circle, as reduced consumer demand (from saving more) leads to reduced delivery of goods and services and higher unemployment, which, in turn, reduces demand still further. To halt this vicious circle before it does further collateral damage to our fragile economy, we need to find a practicable way to provide debt relief at the consumer level--as soon as possible. This is where the helicopter money comes in.
Helicopter Money Initiative
As Bernanke pointed out in his speech, even when monetary policy by itself becomes ineffective, there are a number of alternative ways to combine monetary policy with fiscal stimulus to prevent deflation and encourage economic growth, despite being in a near-zero interest rate environment like the one we are experiencing today. These less traditional, more innovative measures are:
A. Broad-based tax cuts,
B. Increased purchases of goods and services by the government,
C. Purchase of private assets via the Treasury, and
D. Increased direct transfer of money from the government to the private sector.
President-elect Obama is already planning to provide tax cuts (measure A above) to at least 95% of Americans and some talk of reducing payroll taxes is also circulating. The large (maybe $1 trillion?) stimulus package (measure B) currently under discussion in Congress will hopefully be ready for signing by inauguration day. Purchase of private assets (measure C) is already underway in the commercial paper and mortgage-backed security markets, but practical limitations (i.e., how to price highly illiquid instruments) have prevented the proposed wide-scale purchase of toxic mortgage assets that was the main objective the initial TARP plan. Consumer stimulus packages (measure D), along the lines of the one implemented in the first half of 2008, work most directly and immediately to maintain GDP growth and, for this reason, deserve further serious consideration.
Because near-term inflation is no longer an issue, policymakers now have the luxury of taking the most aggressive actions possible to turn our economy around. With the financially stressed, heavily indebted American consumer so central to our problems, it makes sense to implement an enhanced version of measure D--this time in much larger size. Just as people suffering in the aftermath of a natural disaster need immediate and basic emergency assistance, prior to tax-related benefits and government spending to rebuild infrastructure, our severely damaged economy needs a very significant injection of helicopter money delivered directly to the overleveraged consumer.
To achieve the quickest and most direct money transfer to the consumer, here's what our government should do:
Beginning during the first half of 2009, write checks to every household filing a tax return, in the amount of, say, $10,000 per dependent (taxpayer, spouse, children, other household members), which is an order of magnitude larger than the consumer stimulus in early 2008.Offhand, it might appear that this type of seemingly frivolous fiscal policy would be a desperate and highly wasteful use of taxpayer money that could spark a new, undesirable bubble. However, given the precarious state of our economy, such a radical measure stands a greater chance of doing more good than harm and has many benefits:
1. Immediate and Direct Impact: Helicopter money provides an immediate stimulus to consumers and businesses, directly benefiting Main Street (a refreshing change after all the prior rescue plans with trillions of dollars going to Wall Street financial institutions);
2. Reduced Consumer Leverage: Consumers will use some of the money to pay down mortgages, credit card debt, car loans, etc.;
3. Increased Consumption: Consumers will use some of the money to do what consumers do best, i.e., buy products and services, which will immediately boost sales of businesses large and small, preventing further job destruction;
4. Market Support: Some of the money will be invested in the stock and real estate markets, relieving downward pressure on asset prices and helping to create the market bottom that is so badly needed to build consumer and investor confidence and turn our economy around;
5. Global Economic Growth: Reduced consumer leverage, increased consumption and increased investment will all boost the U.S. economy, which in turn will help revive the global economy.
With the U.S. population at about 300 million, this new consumer stimulus package of $10,000 per person would total $3 trillion, which is about four times the $700 billion TARP package but less than half of the approximately $8 trillion in cumulative funds the government has already committed through all of the various measures announced. The net effect of this helicopter money plan would be to shift up to $3 trillion of debt from the consumer to the government. This would reduce leverage at the consumer level and boost aggregate demand to stave off a deflationary spiral.
As Professor Roubini points out in this interview, the basic structural problem we face is a global supply glut cannot immediately be reduced even though demand has fallen. Therefore, at least in the short run, the severity of the current crisis justifies "pulling out all stops" to create the demand necessary to meet existing supply. A large helicopter drop appears to be exactly what is needed to stabilize our economy and sidestep the negative impact that further deterioration in employment and the housing and stock markets will otherwise bring.
Source: http://lloydsinvestment.blogspot.com/2008/12/needed-large-drop-of-helicopter-money.html
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$100 Tradeking Referral Extended to April 14th
The $100 Refer-A-Friend promo for TradeKing.com has extended to April 14th. You just need to apply by the deadline. If you get a referral from an existing account holder, open a new account with at least $1,000 within 30 days of application, and make a trade within 180 days, both people will get $100. In [...]
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- $100 Tradeking Referral Offer Ends
March 31stApril 14th - TradeKing $50 New Account Bonus: No Promo Code or Referral Required
- 2011 TradeKing New Account Referral: $100 Bonus
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Rabu, 27 April 2011
Wednesday Links 4/13/11
Today’s links:
FX Concepts’ John Taylor: The Recession Is Coming This Year, And Stocks Will Tank Starting In�June (Business Insider)
Dollar remains Fools Gold (Oanda)
The Dollar Index: The Down Trend is�Intact (Technical Take)
The Bias to Sell US Dollars�Remains (Daily Reckoning)
The Hardest Working Countries In The�World (Business Insider)
Forex Recruits Find There’s Money to Be Made in Forex (WSJ)
Why Is Silver Rising Faster Than Gold? (Safehaven)
The next European crisis: boat people (The Economist)
The Rise Of Consumer�Confidence (Milo)
Guest Post: FBI Raids Chuck E. Cheese For ?Undermining U.S. Currency? (Zero Hedge)
Afghanistan Opium [Infographic] (Graphic.is)
The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters (Business Pundit)
US police increasingly peeping at e-mail, Read More
FX Concepts’ John Taylor: The Recession Is Coming This Year, And Stocks Will Tank Starting In�June (Business Insider)
Dollar remains Fools Gold (Oanda)
The Dollar Index: The Down Trend is�Intact (Technical Take)
The Bias to Sell US Dollars�Remains (Daily Reckoning)
The Hardest Working Countries In The�World (Business Insider)
Forex Recruits Find There’s Money to Be Made in Forex (WSJ)
Why Is Silver Rising Faster Than Gold? (Safehaven)
The next European crisis: boat people (The Economist)
The Rise Of Consumer�Confidence (Milo)
Guest Post: FBI Raids Chuck E. Cheese For ?Undermining U.S. Currency? (Zero Hedge)
Afghanistan Opium [Infographic] (Graphic.is)
The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters (Business Pundit)
US police increasingly peeping at e-mail, Read More
� 2011 FX Trading Blog - innerfx.com | Article Source | Post tags: Afghanistan, bloggers, books, China, Consumer Confidence, disasters, Dollar, Drugs, Earthquake, economists, Euro-zone crisis, funny pictures, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Greenday, immigration, Internet, John Taylor, music, pictures, privacy, recommended articles, Silver, Spain, usd index
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/innerfx/~3/oA0hnAYrFOM/wednesday-links-41311.html
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Can You Fix The Tax Return You Just Filed?
When you e-filed or dropped off your tax return at the post office April 18th, you may have breathed a sigh of relief and felt good. Whether you paid too little or too much to suit you, it’s out of your hands. But what if shortly after filing you realize you made a big mistake?
Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/robertwood/2011/04/27/can-you-fix-the-tax-return-you-just-filed/
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Increase in Housing Quality vs. Increase in Housing Prices
Catherine over at Visualizing Economics has another nice graphic on Housing Quality and its effect on Home Values. In the top chart, she shows how inflation-adjusted median home values have increased due to the fact that the median home has changed (bigger, better plumbing). This is in contrast with the popular Case-Shiller home price chart, [...]
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- Housing Prices Are Still Too High, Says These Charts
- Ask The Readers: Is This Affordable Housing Opportunity A Good Deal?
- Save Money On Housing: Live Well In Less Space
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